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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Kopylov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1520

Elo1491

Roman KopylovvsClaudio RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Roman Kopylov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:33

Style matchupRoman Kopylov: Pressure fightervsClaudio Ribeiro: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Roman Kopylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roman Kopylov at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Kopylov is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Claudio Ribeiro has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Roman Kopylov has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Roman Kopylov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roman Kopylov

Red Corner

Claudio Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1520

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Claudio Ribeiro

oldest →

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 23

KOvs Joseph Holmes · May 23

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman KopylovMetricClaudio Ribeiro

4.54

Strikes / min

3.59

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

53%

Strike defense

30%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.56

88%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman KopylovClaudio Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Kopylov(10 fights)Claudio Ribeiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.8|Blue -28.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman KopylovTargetClaudio Ribeiro

By target zone

69% acc · 63%

Head

40% acc · 56%

90% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

76% acc · 91%

Distance

52% acc · 91%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Kopylov rounds

even

Claudio Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 42

Sig Strikes

32 / 59

71%

Sig Str %

52%

32 / 42

Total Strikes

33 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Claudio Ribeiro	31 / 57	32 / 58	0 / 1
1	Roman Kopylov	30 / 39	30 / 39	0 / 0
2	Claudio Ribeiro	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0
2	Roman Kopylov	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Claudio Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4