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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Roman Dolidze won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1497
Roman Dolidze editorial illustration
Elo1502

Roman DolidzevsKyle DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Roman Dolidze won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:13

Model Prediction: Kyle Daukaus wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Roman Dolidze wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Daukaus at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roman Dolidze is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Kyle Daukaus has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Kyle Daukaus has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roman Dolidze
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Daukaus
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1497
Elo
1502
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman DolidzeL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24
W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26
latest
Kyle Daukaus
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Feb 22
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22
W
KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25
L
KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman DolidzeMetricKyle Daukaus
3.19
Strikes / min
3.32
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
48%
Strike defense
42%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.08
32%
Takedown defense
82%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1502Strikes3.1 vs 3.2Takedowns1.3 vs 2.1Sub Atts1.10 vs 1.90Form0.4 vs 0.3
Roman DolidzeKyle Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Roman Dolidze(10 fights)Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +259.0|Blue -259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman DolidzeTargetKyle Daukaus

By target zone

8
57% acc · 100%
Head
1
17% acc · 25%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 50%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
4
44% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 38%
Clinch
0
5
63% acc · 63%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Roman Dolidze rounds
0
even
0
Kyle Daukaus rounds
Round 1Roman Dolidze edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:36
Knockdowns2
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
8 / 15
Sig Strikes
4 / 9
53%
Sig Str %
44%
10 / 17
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:36
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kyle Daukaus4 / 95 / 100 / 00
1Roman Dolidze8 / 1510 / 170 / 00

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8