← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Dolidze won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1497

Elo1510

Roman DolidzevsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Roman Dolidze won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Roman Dolidze wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Holland has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roman Dolidze

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1497

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman DolidzeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 24

vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman DolidzeMetricKevin Holland

3.19

Strikes / min

4.24

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

48%

Strike defense

50%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.79

32%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman DolidzeKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Dolidze(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.4|Blue +12.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman DolidzeTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

53% acc · 84%

Head

38% acc · 28%

100% acc · 11%

Body

75% acc · 17%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

91% acc · 56%

By position

50% acc · 26%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

61% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Dolidze rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Roman Dolidze edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:50

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 33

Sig Strikes

18 / 28

57%

Sig Str %

64%

57 / 101

Total Strikes

36 / 46

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	18 / 28	36 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Roman Dolidze	19 / 33	57 / 101	1 / 1	0

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27