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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Roman DolidzevsChristian Leroy DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Roman Dolidze

Red Corner

Christian Leroy Duncan

Blue Corner

+340

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-470

(82%)

1497

Elo

1577

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Dolidze

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 24

vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24

KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25

latest

Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman DolidzeMetricChristian Leroy Duncan

3.19

Strikes / min

4.43

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

48%

Strike defense

52%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.33

32%

Takedown defense

63%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman DolidzeChristian Leroy Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Dolidze(10 fights)Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.8|Blue +79.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman DolidzeTargetChristian Leroy Duncan

By target zone

26% acc · 80%

Head

35% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 11%

67% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 56%

By position

27% acc · 90%

Distance

55% acc · 94%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Dolidze rounds

even

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:33

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:33

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:01

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 34

Sig Strikes

54 / 99

30.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

40 / 94

Total Strikes

78 / 125

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:07

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	16 / 29	23 / 36	0 / 1
1	Roman Dolidze	2 / 6	3 / 7	2 / 2
2	Christian Leroy Duncan	20 / 44	28 / 54	0 / 0
2	Roman Dolidze	5 / 19	9 / 24	0 / 1
3	Christian Leroy Duncan	18 / 26	27 / 35	0 / 1
3	Roman Dolidze	3 / 9	28 / 63	1 / 1

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10