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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Anthony Hernandez won · SUB R4
Elo1497
Roman Dolidze editorial illustration
Elo1530
Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Roman DolidzevsAnthony HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

SUB · Round 4 · 2:45

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(93.1%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roman Dolidze is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Anthony Hernandez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Anthony Hernandez has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roman Dolidze
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Hernandez
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1497
Elo
1530
38
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Dolidze
oldest →
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 24
W
vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24
W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26
latest
Anthony Hernandez
oldest →
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · May 23
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24
W
KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24
W
vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25
L
KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman DolidzeMetricAnthony Hernandez
3.19
Strikes / min
4.57
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
48%
Strike defense
51%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
5.88
32%
Takedown defense
68%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1601 vs 1618Strikes3.2 vs 4.6Takedowns1.2 vs 5.9Sub Atts0.70 vs 1.60Form0.7 vs 1.1
Roman DolidzeAnthony Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Roman Dolidze(10 fights)Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.6|Blue +32.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman DolidzeTargetAnthony Hernandez

By target zone

25
28% acc · 69%
Head
67
52% acc · 74%
4
36% acc · 11%
Body
6
100% acc · 7%
7
88% acc · 19%
Leg
18
100% acc · 20%

By position

34
34% acc · 94%
Distance
48
47% acc · 53%
2
33% acc · 6%
Clinch
13
72% acc · 14%
0
Ground
30
94% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Roman Dolidze rounds
0
even
4
Anthony Hernandez rounds
Round 1Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:45
19Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
44Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:47Control
Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:28Control
Round 4Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 107
Sig Strikes
91 / 152
30%
Sig Str %
60.8%
39 / 110
Total Strikes
120 / 187
0 / 1
TDs
9 / 11
0%
TD %
87.5%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
7:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roman Dolidze10 / 3113 / 340 / 00
1Anthony Hernandez19 / 3721 / 392 / 40
2Roman Dolidze20 / 5220 / 520 / 00
2Anthony Hernandez44 / 7352 / 833 / 30
3Roman Dolidze4 / 164 / 160 / 10
3Anthony Hernandez18 / 2728 / 383 / 30
4Anthony Hernandez10 / 1519 / 271 / 11
4Roman Dolidze2 / 82 / 80 / 00

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12