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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1387
Elo1519

Rogerio NogueiravsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Rogerio Nogueira has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
  • Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Spann
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1387
Elo
1519
50
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
190.5 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio Nogueira
oldest →
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16
L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16
W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20
latest
Ryan SpannW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25
W
KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Spann
2.43
Strikes / min
3.11
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
59%
Strike defense
43%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
1.21
62%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1512 vs 1515Strikes26.3 vs 46.0Takedowns0.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.18 vs 1.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Rogerio NogueiraRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -132.0|Blue +132.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio NogueiraTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

6
25% acc · 100%
Head
11
37% acc · 85%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 8%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

6
25% acc · 100%
Distance
10
34% acc · 77%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rogerio Nogueira rounds
0
even
1
Ryan Spann rounds
Round 1Ryan Spann edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 24
Sig Strikes
13 / 32
25%
Sig Str %
40%
6 / 24
Total Strikes
13 / 32
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan Spann13 / 3213 / 321 / 21
1Rogerio Nogueira6 / 246 / 240 / 00

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17