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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R3

Elo1387

Elo1491

Rogerio NogueiravsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Bader has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Nogueira

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1387

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Bader

2.43

Strikes / min

2.82

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

59%

Strike defense

71%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

3.37

62%

Takedown defense

80%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rogerio NogueiraRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.9|Blue +103.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio NogueiraTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

19% acc · 75%

Head

26% acc · 71%

36% acc · 14%

Body

89% acc · 19%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

20% acc · 89%

Distance

26% acc · 57%

60% acc · 11%

Clinch

44% acc · 17%

Ground

55% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 2Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 127

Sig Strikes

42 / 127

20.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

39 / 138

Total Strikes

66 / 161

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 16

—

TD %

32.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Bader	15 / 41	31 / 57	2 / 4
1	Rogerio Nogueira	6 / 30	7 / 31	0 / 0
2	Ryan Bader	10 / 39	11 / 43	1 / 5
2	Rogerio Nogueira	5 / 40	8 / 43	0 / 0
3	Ryan Bader	17 / 47	24 / 61	2 / 7
3	Rogerio Nogueira	17 / 57	24 / 64	0 / 0

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16