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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1387
Elo1373
Patrick Cummins

Rogerio NogueiravsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Rogerio Nogueira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:52

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Patrick Cummins has lost 71% of fights by KO.
  • Rogerio Nogueira has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Cummins
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
1387
Elo
1373
50
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15
L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16
W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18
L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20
latest
Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17
W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17
L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18
L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio NogueiraMetricPatrick Cummins
2.43
Strikes / min
4.26
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
4.49
62%
Takedown defense
28%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1519Strikes28.8 vs 38.7Takedowns0.1 vs 4.3Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.14Form-0.8 vs -0.0
Rogerio NogueiraPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.9|Blue -13.9
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio NogueiraTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

30
55% acc · 100%
Head
6
24% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
6
67% acc · 50%

By position

23
46% acc · 77%
Distance
12
36% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 7%
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rogerio Nogueira rounds
0
even
0
Patrick Cummins rounds
Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
30 / 58
Sig Strikes
12 / 36
51%
Sig Str %
33%
36 / 65
Total Strikes
14 / 38
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
0:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Patrick Cummins12 / 3614 / 380 / 20
1Rogerio Nogueira30 / 5836 / 650 / 00

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13