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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ray Borg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1492

Rogerio BontorinvsRay BorgUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Ray Borg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRogerio Bontorin: WrestlervsRay Borg: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rogerio Bontorin wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Ray Borg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Bontorin at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rogerio Bontorin has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Bontorin

Red Corner

Ray Borg

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1494

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio Bontorin

oldest →

vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21

vs Matt Schnell · May 21

vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22

latest

Ray Borg

oldest →

vs Jussier Formiga · Mar 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio BontorinMetricRay Borg

2.63

Strikes / min

1.52

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

50%

Strike defense

48%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

3.89

51%

Takedown defense

46%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rogerio BontorinRay Borg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Ray Borg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio BontorinTargetRay Borg

By target zone

21% acc · 33%

Head

80% acc · 100%

100% acc · 56%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

23% acc · 33%

Distance

29% acc · 6%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

75% acc · 34%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

95% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

even

Ray Borg rounds

Round 1Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:32

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 2Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:37Control

Round 3Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:12

17Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

4:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 20

Sig Strikes

35 / 45

41.7%

Sig Str %

77%

24 / 35

Total Strikes

60 / 74

0 / 2

TDs

10 / 19

TD %

49.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

11:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ray Borg	8 / 13	13 / 18	2 / 4
1	Rogerio Bontorin	7 / 14	19 / 26	0 / 2
2	Ray Borg	10 / 11	17 / 18	2 / 6
2	Rogerio Bontorin	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0
3	Ray Borg	17 / 21	30 / 38	6 / 9
3	Rogerio Bontorin	1 / 4	4 / 7	0 / 0

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12