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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Bontorin won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1429

Rogerio BontorinvsRaulian PaivaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Rogerio Bontorin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:56

Style matchupRogerio Bontorin: WrestlervsRaulian Paiva: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rogerio Bontorin wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Rogerio Bontorin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Bontorin at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raulian Paiva has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Bontorin

Red Corner

Raulian Paiva

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1494

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio Bontorin

oldest →

vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19

vs Ray Borg · Feb 20

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21

vs Matt Schnell · May 21

vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22

latest

Raulian PaivaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21

vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio BontorinMetricRaulian Paiva

2.63

Strikes / min

4.14

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

50%

Strike defense

48%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

0.65

51%

Takedown defense

77%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rogerio BontorinRaulian Paiva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.3|Blue -65.3

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio BontorinTargetRaulian Paiva

By target zone

46% acc · 75%

Head

21% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 88%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

even

Raulian Paiva rounds

Round 1Rogerio Bontorin edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 15

Sig Strikes

3 / 15

53%

Sig Str %

20%

8 / 16

Total Strikes

7 / 19

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raulian Paiva	3 / 15	7 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Rogerio Bontorin	8 / 15	8 / 16	2 / 5	0

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7