Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kai Kara-France has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kai Kara-France has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio Bontorin
oldest →W
vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19W
KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19W
vs Matt Schnell · May 21L
vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22 Kai Kara-France
oldest →W
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22W
KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio BontorinMetricKai Kara-France
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.64Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.22
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rogerio BontorinKai Kara-France
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +224.0|Blue -224.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rogerio BontorinTargetKai Kara-France
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kai Kara-France edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control3:15
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
