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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Daniil Donchenko won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1484

Elo1562

Rodrigo SezinandovsDaniil DonchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Daniil Donchenko won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupRodrigo Sezinando: WrestlervsDaniil Donchenko: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Daniil Donchenko wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Daniil Donchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniil Donchenko at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniil Donchenko has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Rodrigo Sezinando

Red Corner

Daniil Donchenko

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1484

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodrigo SezinandoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Daniil DonchenkoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Feb 26

KOvs Theodor Berggren · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodrigo SezinandoMetricDaniil Donchenko

2.25

Strikes / min

7.15

8.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

42%

Strike defense

72%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

0.77

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-6.51Δ 11.09 — meaningful gap+4.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodrigo SezinandoDaniil Donchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodrigo Sezinando(1 fights)Daniil Donchenko(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.1|Blue +78.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodrigo SezinandoTargetDaniil Donchenko

By target zone

23% acc · 70%

Head

53% acc · 74%

50% acc · 30%

Body

73% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

21% acc · 70%

Distance

52% acc · 59%

100% acc · 30%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

Ground

67% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodrigo Sezinando rounds

even

Daniil Donchenko rounds

Round 1Daniil Donchenko edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:02

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 36

Sig Strikes

39 / 68

27%

Sig Str %

57%

10 / 36

Total Strikes

42 / 71

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

25%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniil Donchenko	39 / 68	42 / 71	1 / 3	0
1	Rodrigo Sezinando	10 / 36	10 / 36	1 / 4	0

Rodrigo Sezinando

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1

Daniil Donchenko

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4