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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Nascimento won · SUB R2

Elo1500

Elo1482

Rodrigo NascimentovsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Rodrigo Nascimento won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:05

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(83.9%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Don'Tale Mayes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rodrigo Nascimento has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rodrigo Nascimento

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1500

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'6"

203.2 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodrigo NascimentoMetricDon'Tale Mayes

3.71

Strikes / min

3.22

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

44%

Strike defense

46%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

0.59

60%

Takedown defense

46%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.63evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodrigo NascimentoDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.2|Blue -18.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodrigo NascimentoTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

42% acc · 44%

Head

33% acc · 37%

86% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 26%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 37%

By position

58% acc · 81%

Distance

51% acc · 78%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

86% acc · 22%

75% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:20

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 52

Sig Strikes

27 / 48

68.5%

Sig Str %

60.5%

45 / 65

Total Strikes

42 / 65

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Don'Tale Mayes	16 / 33	26 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	21 / 39	33 / 51	1 / 1	0
2	Don'Tale Mayes	11 / 15	16 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	11 / 13	12 / 14	1 / 1	1

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10