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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Nascimento won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1482

Rodrigo NascimentovsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Rodrigo Nascimento won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Don'Tale Mayes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rodrigo Nascimento has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rodrigo Nascimento

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1500

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'6"

203.2 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodrigo NascimentoMetricDon'Tale Mayes

3.71

Strikes / min

3.22

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

44%

Strike defense

46%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

0.59

60%

Takedown defense

46%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.63evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodrigo NascimentoDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.2|Blue -18.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodrigo NascimentoTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

39% acc · 73%

Head

38% acc · 49%

82% acc · 13%

Body

68% acc · 38%

91% acc · 14%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 83%

Distance

43% acc · 70%

60% acc · 17%

Clinch

77% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:33

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:48

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 154

Sig Strikes

79 / 159

44.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

91 / 180

Total Strikes

105 / 190

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Don'Tale Mayes	28 / 60	35 / 71	0 / 0
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	33 / 69	41 / 79	0 / 2
2	Don'Tale Mayes	23 / 50	36 / 64	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	20 / 40	30 / 53	0 / 1
3	Don'Tale Mayes	28 / 49	34 / 55	0 / 1
3	Rodrigo Nascimento	17 / 45	20 / 48	0 / 0

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10