Featherweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Damm won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1369

Rodrigo DammvsMizuto HirotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Rodrigo Damm won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRodrigo Damm: Well-roundedvsMizuto Hirota: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Damm wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Damm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Damm at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rodrigo Damm enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mizuto Hirota enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rodrigo Damm has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rodrigo Damm has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rodrigo Damm

Red Corner

Mizuto Hirota

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1354

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodrigo DammL3 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carvalho · Nov 12

vs Ivan Jorge · Feb 14

vs Rashid Magomedov · May 14

KOvs Al Iaquinta · Sep 14

vs Evan Dunham · Jan 15

latest

Mizuto HirotaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 13

vs Cole Miller · Dec 16

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jun 17

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 18

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodrigo DammMetricMizuto Hirota

3.50

Strikes / min

3.36

5.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

57%

Strike defense

54%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.36

80%

Takedown defense

58%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.11Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodrigo DammMizuto Hirota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodrigo Damm(7 fights)Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.0|Blue +15.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodrigo DammTargetMizuto Hirota

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 59%

71% acc · 16%

Body

91% acc · 31%

76% acc · 17%

Leg

91% acc · 10%

By position

47% acc · 99%

Distance

100

51% acc · 98%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodrigo Damm rounds

even

Mizuto Hirota rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:30

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:13

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 162

Sig Strikes

102 / 199

46.7%

Sig Str %

52%

77 / 163

Total Strikes

113 / 212

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

22%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mizuto Hirota	26 / 43	37 / 56	0 / 0
1	Rodrigo Damm	19 / 41	20 / 42	1 / 3
2	Mizuto Hirota	40 / 77	40 / 77	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Damm	27 / 65	27 / 65	0 / 1
3	Mizuto Hirota	36 / 79	36 / 79	0 / 1
3	Rodrigo Damm	30 / 56	30 / 56	1 / 3

Rodrigo Damm

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6