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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rodolfo Vieira won · SUB R3

Elo1483

Elo1486

Rodolfo VieiravsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodolfo Vieira won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:54

Style matchupRodolfo Vieira: WrestlervsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Rodolfo Vieira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodolfo Vieira at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rodolfo Vieira

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1483

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodolfo VieiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Feb 24

vs Andre Petroski · Feb 25

vs Tresean Gore · Aug 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Nov 25

DECvs Eric McConico · Apr 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodolfo VieiraMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.43

Strikes / min

3.30

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

49%

Strike defense

47%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

2.08

60%

Takedown defense

46%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodolfo VieiraDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodolfo Vieira(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodolfo VieiraTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

52% acc · 86%

Head

31% acc · 79%

100% acc · 4%

Body

61% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 4%

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 96%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodolfo Vieira rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:45

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rodolfo Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control1:25

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 88

Sig Strikes

67 / 192

70%

Sig Str %

35%

52 / 93

Total Strikes

83 / 209

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	34 / 94	37 / 97	0 / 1	0
1	Rodolfo Vieira	23 / 46	23 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	29 / 87	33 / 92	0 / 2	0
2	Rodolfo Vieira	25 / 41	26 / 43	1 / 2	0
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	4 / 11	13 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	Rodolfo Vieira	1 / 1	3 / 4	2 / 2	1

Rodolfo Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10