Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Rodney WallacevsPhil DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRodney Wallace: WrestlervsPhil Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Phil Davis has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rodney Wallace (52.9%).
Phil Davis has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rodney Wallace

Red Corner

Phil Davis

Blue Corner

+600

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-900

(90%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodney Wallace

oldest →

vs Jared Hamman · Mar 10

latest

Phil Davis

oldest →

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodney WallaceMetricPhil Davis

1.13

Strikes / min

2.85

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

45%

Strike defense

72%

6.00

TDs / 15 min

2.99

28%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.31Δ 3.83 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodney WallacePhil Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodney Wallace(2 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.6|Blue +139.6

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodney WallaceTargetPhil Davis

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

59% acc · 68%

50% acc · 50%

Body

83% acc · 32%

Leg

0% acc

By position

17% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 12%

33% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

70% acc · 76%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodney Wallace rounds

even

Phil Davis rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:13Control

Round 3Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 9

Sig Strikes

59 / 92

22%

Sig Str %

62.3%

5 / 12

Total Strikes

97 / 137

0 / 5

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

11:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Davis	29 / 34	47 / 57	2 / 2
1	Rodney Wallace	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1
2	Phil Davis	18 / 34	30 / 47	0 / 0
2	Rodney Wallace	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 3
3	Phil Davis	12 / 24	20 / 33	1 / 2
3	Rodney Wallace	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 1

Rodney Wallace

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11