← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1482

Robert WhittakervsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:43

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsStephen Thompson: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Robert Whittaker has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1511

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricStephen Thompson

4.39

Strikes / min

4.05

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

59%

Strike defense

54%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.23

82%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.6|Blue -28.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

27% acc · 89%

Head

44% acc · 74%

Body

54% acc · 18%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

28% acc · 95%

Distance

38% acc · 66%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

86% acc · 16%

Ground

88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 66

Sig Strikes

38 / 80

28%

Sig Str %

47%

19 / 66

Total Strikes

39 / 81

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	38 / 80	39 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Robert Whittaker	19 / 66	19 / 66	0 / 0	0

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21