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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Reinier de Ridder won · S-DEC R5

Elo1511

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Robert WhittakervsReinier de RidderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Reinier de Ridder won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsReinier de Ridder: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Reinier de Ridder wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Reinier de Ridder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reinier de Ridder at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Whittaker has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Robert Whittaker has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Reinier de Ridder (53.5%).
Reinier de Ridder has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Reinier de Ridder

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+128

(44%)

1511

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Reinier de RidderL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jan 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · May 25

KOvs Brendan Allen · Oct 25

vs Caio Borralho · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricReinier de Ridder

4.39

Strikes / min

2.47

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

59%

Strike defense

46%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

2.56

82%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerReinier de Ridder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetReinier de Ridder

By target zone

46% acc · 94%

Head

39% acc · 61%

57% acc · 6%

Body

65% acc · 39%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 77%

Distance

42% acc · 81%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

82% acc · 13%

79% acc · 17%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Reinier de Ridder rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

0Knockdowns

Round 4Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:04

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 5Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 142

Sig Strikes

67 / 145

44.8%

Sig Str %

47%

70 / 146

Total Strikes

192 / 282

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 15

—

TD %

16.6%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

9:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reinier de Ridder	15 / 35	21 / 42	0 / 3
1	Robert Whittaker	20 / 34	21 / 35	0 / 0
2	Reinier de Ridder	16 / 38	29 / 58	1 / 3
2	Robert Whittaker	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 0
3	Reinier de Ridder	13 / 30	32 / 51	1 / 2
3	Robert Whittaker	20 / 28	21 / 29	0 / 0
4	Reinier de Ridder	14 / 24	37 / 48	0 / 3
4	Robert Whittaker	6 / 22	8 / 24	0 / 0
5	Robert Whittaker	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0
5	Reinier de Ridder	9 / 18	73 / 83	0 / 4

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6