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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1361

Robert WhittakervsRafael NatalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsRafael Natal: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Rafael Natal

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1511

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Rafael NatalL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Jan 15

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricRafael Natal

4.39

Strikes / min

3.10

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

2.55

82%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerRafael Natal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +150.0|Blue -150.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetRafael Natal

By target zone

40% acc · 57%

Head

38% acc · 58%

91% acc · 11%

Body

27% acc · 6%

78% acc · 31%

Leg

81% acc · 35%

By position

50% acc · 93%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Rafael Natal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:02

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 176

Sig Strikes

62 / 137

49.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

92 / 179

Total Strikes

63 / 138

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Natal	22 / 48	23 / 49	0 / 1
1	Robert Whittaker	23 / 51	23 / 51	0 / 0
2	Rafael Natal	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 2
2	Robert Whittaker	31 / 61	33 / 63	0 / 0
3	Rafael Natal	19 / 43	19 / 43	0 / 1
3	Robert Whittaker	35 / 64	36 / 65	0 / 0

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16