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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1522

Robert WhittakervsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Whittaker has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Paulo Costa

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1511

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricPaulo Costa

4.39

Strikes / min

6.15

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

59%

Strike defense

49%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.30

82%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -322.0|Blue +322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

44% acc · 66%

Head

33% acc · 58%

100% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

91% acc · 30%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Paulo Costa rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 175

Sig Strikes

67 / 151

54%

Sig Str %

44%

95 / 175

Total Strikes

67 / 151

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paulo Costa	27 / 49	27 / 49	0 / 0
1	Robert Whittaker	38 / 62	38 / 62	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	26 / 54	26 / 54	0 / 0
2	Robert Whittaker	32 / 55	32 / 55	0 / 0
3	Paulo Costa	14 / 48	14 / 48	0 / 0
3	Robert Whittaker	25 / 58	25 / 58	0 / 1

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11