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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1467

Robert WhittakervsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1511

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricMarvin Vettori

4.39

Strikes / min

4.74

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

59%

Strike defense

56%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

1.41

82%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.7|Blue -43.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

36% acc · 66%

Head

16% acc · 45%

67% acc · 8%

Body

70% acc · 21%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

92% acc · 33%

By position

44% acc · 97%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:12

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 166

Sig Strikes

33 / 116

44.3%

Sig Str %

28.7%

74 / 166

Total Strikes

38 / 121

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marvin Vettori	14 / 41	16 / 43	0 / 0
1	Robert Whittaker	22 / 56	22 / 56	0 / 0
2	Marvin Vettori	10 / 45	11 / 46	0 / 0
2	Robert Whittaker	25 / 53	25 / 53	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	9 / 30	11 / 32	0 / 1
3	Robert Whittaker	27 / 57	27 / 57	1 / 1

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17