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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC
Elo1511
Robert Whittaker editorial illustration
Elo1492
Kelvin Gastelum

Robert WhittakervsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robert Whittaker has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1511
Elo
1492
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker
oldest →
W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26
latest
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24
L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricKelvin Gastelum
4.39
Strikes / min
3.65
3.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
59%
Strike defense
57%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
1.04
82%
Takedown defense
60%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1677 vs 1579Strikes4.7 vs 3.5Takedowns0.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.10Form0.7 vs 0.1
Robert WhittakerKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.5|Blue -19.5
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

115
48% acc · 77%
Head
42
23% acc · 68%
13
68% acc · 9%
Body
7
70% acc · 11%
22
92% acc · 15%
Leg
13
93% acc · 21%

By position

138
52% acc · 92%
Distance
59
29% acc · 95%
5
71% acc · 3%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 5%
7
58% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Robert Whittaker rounds
0
even
0
Kelvin Gastelum rounds
Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:28
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control0:06
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 5Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control1:45
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
150 / 284
Sig Strikes
62 / 209
51.8%
Sig Str %
30.6%
169 / 303
Total Strikes
70 / 218
4 / 7
TDs
1 / 5
53.2%
TD %
16.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:19
Ctrl Time
0:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kelvin Gastelum8 / 198 / 190 / 00
1Robert Whittaker18 / 4233 / 571 / 10
2Kelvin Gastelum14 / 6116 / 630 / 20
2Robert Whittaker43 / 7444 / 751 / 10
3Kelvin Gastelum20 / 5720 / 570 / 00
3Robert Whittaker38 / 6438 / 640 / 10
4Robert Whittaker33 / 7133 / 710 / 10
4Kelvin Gastelum13 / 4313 / 431 / 30
5Kelvin Gastelum7 / 2913 / 360 / 00
5Robert Whittaker18 / 3321 / 362 / 30

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights26

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24