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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC

Elo1511

Elo1481

Robert WhittakervsJared CannonierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsJared Cannonier: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Whittaker has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).
Jared Cannonier has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Jared Cannonier

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1511

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricJared Cannonier

4.39

Strikes / min

4.42

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

59%

Strike defense

56%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.54

82%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerJared Cannonier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Jared Cannonier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.8|Blue -29.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -301.0|Blue +301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetJared Cannonier

By target zone

43% acc · 86%

Head

37% acc · 32%

63% acc · 7%

Body

78% acc · 26%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

88% acc · 42%

By position

45% acc · 90%

Distance

58% acc · 92%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

80% acc · 8%

50% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Jared Cannonier rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:06

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:04

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 151

Sig Strikes

53 / 89

45.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

75 / 158

Total Strikes

58 / 94

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Cannonier	19 / 29	19 / 29	0 / 0
1	Robert Whittaker	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0
2	Jared Cannonier	24 / 43	24 / 43	0 / 0
2	Robert Whittaker	27 / 60	27 / 60	0 / 1
3	Jared Cannonier	10 / 17	15 / 22	0 / 0
3	Robert Whittaker	17 / 35	23 / 42	0 / 1

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21