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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Israel Adesanya won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1511

Elo1464

Robert WhittakervsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:33

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Israel Adesanya has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Israel Adesanya

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1511

Elo

1464

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricIsrael Adesanya

4.39

Strikes / min

4.03

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

59%

Strike defense

55%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

0.05

82%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.6|Blue -46.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

21% acc · 63%

Head

34% acc · 68%

60% acc · 9%

Body

75% acc · 15%

64% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 93%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Israel Adesanya rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 116

Sig Strikes

40 / 95

27.5%

Sig Str %

42%

32 / 116

Total Strikes

40 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Israel Adesanya	20 / 44	20 / 44	0 / 0
1	Robert Whittaker	17 / 66	17 / 66	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0
2	Robert Whittaker	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 0

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19