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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1546

Robert WhittakervsIkram AliskerovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:49

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsIkram Aliskerov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ikram Aliskerov at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ikram Aliskerov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Robert Whittaker has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ikram Aliskerov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ikram Aliskerov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Ikram Aliskerov

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1511

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Ikram AliskerovW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Phil Hawes · May 23

KOvs Warlley Alves · Oct 23

KOvs Andre Muniz · Apr 25

vs JunYong Park · Oct 25

DECvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricIkram Aliskerov

4.39

Strikes / min

6.86

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

59%

Strike defense

41%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

3.20

82%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerIkram Aliskerov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Ikram Aliskerov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.3|Blue +35.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetIkram Aliskerov

By target zone

63% acc · 86%

Head

30% acc · 60%

Body

25% acc · 20%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

67% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Ikram Aliskerov rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 21

Sig Strikes

5 / 15

66%

Sig Str %

33%

14 / 21

Total Strikes

5 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ikram Aliskerov	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Robert Whittaker	14 / 21	14 / 21	0 / 0	0

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Ikram Aliskerov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6