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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1454

Robert WhittakervsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:07

Style matchupRobert Whittaker: Well-roundedvsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Derek Brunson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1511

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricDerek Brunson

4.39

Strikes / min

3.51

3.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.73

TDs / 15 min

3.14

82%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert WhittakerDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.8|Blue -56.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

55% acc · 91%

Head

44% acc · 95%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

51% acc · 61%

Distance

36% acc · 47%

70% acc · 21%

Clinch

59% acc · 53%

67% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Whittaker rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 58

Sig Strikes

19 / 42

56%

Sig Str %

45%

35 / 60

Total Strikes

25 / 48

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	19 / 42	25 / 48	0 / 3	0
1	Robert Whittaker	33 / 58	35 / 60	0 / 0	0

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21