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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · U-DEC R5
Elo1511
Robert Whittaker editorial illustration
Elo1443
Darren Till

Robert WhittakervsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Darren Till (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robert Whittaker
Red Corner
VS
Darren Till
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+107
(48%)
1511
Elo
1443
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert Whittaker
oldest →
W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26
latest
Darren TillL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert WhittakerMetricDarren Till
4.39
Strikes / min
2.30
3.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.31
59%
Strike defense
56%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
0.55
82%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1649 vs 1582Strikes4.8 vs 2.4Takedowns0.4 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs 0.3
Robert WhittakerDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.6|Blue -67.6
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert WhittakerTargetDarren Till

By target zone

32
28% acc · 46%
Head
29
34% acc · 71%
7
70% acc · 10%
Body
7
88% acc · 17%
30
97% acc · 43%
Leg
5
100% acc · 12%

By position

57
41% acc · 83%
Distance
31
36% acc · 76%
7
64% acc · 10%
Clinch
7
78% acc · 17%
5
71% acc · 7%
Ground
3
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Robert Whittaker rounds
0
even
1
Darren Till rounds
Round 1Darren Till edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:48
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:06
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control0:33
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
69 / 157
Sig Strikes
41 / 99
43.6%
Sig Str %
39.4%
100 / 188
Total Strikes
50 / 108
2 / 13
TDs
0 / 0
7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:29
Ctrl Time
0:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Darren Till12 / 2416 / 280 / 00
1Robert Whittaker11 / 3013 / 320 / 20
2Darren Till3 / 123 / 120 / 00
2Robert Whittaker15 / 3042 / 570 / 00
3Darren Till6 / 216 / 210 / 00
3Robert Whittaker13 / 3213 / 320 / 20
4Robert Whittaker13 / 3414 / 350 / 20
4Darren Till8 / 199 / 200 / 00
5Darren Till12 / 2316 / 270 / 00
5Robert Whittaker17 / 3118 / 322 / 70

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights26

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11