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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Robert Peralta won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1354

Elo1353

Robert PeraltavsEstevan PayanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robert Peralta won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:12

Style matchupRobert Peralta: Well-roundedvsEstevan Payan: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Robert Peralta wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Robert Peralta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Peralta at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Peralta is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Estevan Payan has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Robert Peralta

Red Corner

Estevan Payan

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1354

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert PeraltaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Young · Sep 12

vs Akira Corassani · Apr 13

vs Rony Jason · May 14

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 15

latest

Estevan PayanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jeremy Stephens · May 13

KOvs Alex White · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert PeraltaMetricEstevan Payan

3.76

Strikes / min

4.25

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

0.36

65%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robert PeraltaEstevan Payan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robert Peralta(7 fights)Estevan Payan(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert PeraltaTargetEstevan Payan

By target zone

24% acc · 29%

Head

32% acc · 41%

100% acc · 15%

Body

79% acc · 47%

86% acc · 56%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

45% acc · 62%

Distance

23% acc · 22%

69% acc · 32%

Clinch

84% acc · 50%

40% acc · 6%

Ground

56% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robert Peralta rounds

even

Estevan Payan rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:07

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:56

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Robert Peralta edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 68

Sig Strikes

32 / 65

48%

Sig Str %

50.7%

53 / 90

Total Strikes

62 / 95

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

3:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Estevan Payan	13 / 22	37 / 46	0 / 0
1	Robert Peralta	8 / 14	21 / 30	2 / 2
2	Estevan Payan	18 / 41	24 / 47	1 / 1
2	Robert Peralta	21 / 40	27 / 46	0 / 0
3	Estevan Payan	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0
3	Robert Peralta	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0

Robert Peralta

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Estevan Payan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights3