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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Tyron Woodley won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler
Elo1398
Tyron Woodley

Robbie LawlervsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Tyron Woodley has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Tyron Woodley
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1499
Elo
1398
44
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest
Tyron WoodleyL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19
L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20
L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricTyron Woodley
3.85
Strikes / min
2.36
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
59%
Strike defense
54%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.06
65%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1635 vs 1564Strikes51.1 vs 25.3Takedowns1.0 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs 0.7
Robbie LawlerTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +101.3|Blue -101.3
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -336.0|Blue +336.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
7
78% acc · 88%
3
60% acc · 100%
Body
1
50% acc · 13%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
40% acc · 67%
Distance
3
50% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Robbie Lawler rounds
0
even
1
Tyron Woodley rounds
Round 1Tyron Woodley edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
8 / 11
50%
Sig Str %
72%
4 / 7
Total Strikes
8 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tyron Woodley8 / 118 / 110 / 00
1Robbie Lawler3 / 64 / 70 / 00

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15