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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler
Elo1357
Rory MacDonald

Robbie LawlervsRory MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 1:00

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Rory MacDonald has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
1499
Elo
1357
44
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest
Rory MacDonald
oldest →
L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14
W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14
W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14
L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricRory MacDonald
3.85
Strikes / min
3.75
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
59%
Strike defense
62%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.77
65%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1601 vs 1605Strikes46.9 vs 47.3Takedowns1.1 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.45Form0.8 vs 0.7
Robbie LawlerRory MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.9|Blue -141.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetRory MacDonald

By target zone

68
46% acc · 97%
Head
70
37% acc · 81%
1
17% acc · 1%
Body
13
45% acc · 15%
1
100% acc · 1%
Leg
3
75% acc · 3%

By position

65
45% acc · 93%
Distance
71
36% acc · 83%
3
33% acc · 4%
Clinch
15
68% acc · 17%
2
67% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Robbie Lawler rounds
0
even
4
Rory MacDonald rounds
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:08
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 4Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
70 / 156
Sig Strikes
86 / 222
46.2%
Sig Str %
34%
76 / 163
Total Strikes
87 / 223
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 4
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rory MacDonald11 / 4111 / 410 / 10
1Robbie Lawler9 / 179 / 170 / 00
2Rory MacDonald22 / 5622 / 560 / 00
2Robbie Lawler20 / 4320 / 430 / 00
3Rory MacDonald26 / 5626 / 560 / 10
3Robbie Lawler15 / 4019 / 450 / 00
4Robbie Lawler15 / 3617 / 380 / 00
4Rory MacDonald25 / 5626 / 570 / 20
5Rory MacDonald2 / 132 / 130 / 00
5Robbie Lawler11 / 2011 / 200 / 00

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12