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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R5

Elo1499

Elo1491

Robbie LawlervsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, December 16, 2017Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Robbie Lawler has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricRafael Dos Anjos

3.85

Strikes / min

3.48

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

59%

Strike defense

60%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.95

65%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.5|Blue -8.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

31% acc · 62%

Head

100

50% acc · 58%

80% acc · 37%

Body

75% acc · 28%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

86% acc · 14%

By position

30% acc · 56%

Distance

104

51% acc · 60%

72% acc · 44%

Clinch

74% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:14

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:43

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:13

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:14

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 5Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 212

Sig Strikes

172 / 291

40.4%

Sig Str %

58.6%

137 / 267

Total Strikes

219 / 343

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

26.6%

Sub Att

Rev

4:24

Ctrl Time

7:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	19 / 49	31 / 61	0 / 1
1	Robbie Lawler	14 / 40	18 / 44	0 / 0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	58 / 97	60 / 99	0 / 1
2	Robbie Lawler	34 / 74	36 / 76	0 / 0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	19 / 28	40 / 50	1 / 1
3	Robbie Lawler	16 / 26	29 / 39	0 / 0
4	Robbie Lawler	11 / 40	18 / 47	0 / 0
4	Rafael Dos Anjos	39 / 63	44 / 72	0 / 1
5	Rafael Dos Anjos	37 / 54	44 / 61	1 / 3
5	Robbie Lawler	11 / 32	36 / 61	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32