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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler
Elo1445
Niko Price

Robbie LawlervsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:38

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Niko Price wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
  • Robbie Lawler has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Robbie Lawler has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Niko Price
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1499
Elo
1445
44
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
latest
Niko PriceL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alex Morono · Jun 24
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25
L
KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricNiko Price
3.85
Strikes / min
5.11
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.57
59%
Strike defense
48%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.06
65%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1521Strikes3.9 vs 5.7Takedowns0.7 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form-0.4 vs -0.5
Robbie LawlerNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301453147514981520← oldermost recent →
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +54.1|Blue -54.1
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetNiko Price

By target zone

8
80% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
50% acc · 50%
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 50%

By position

4
67% acc · 50%
Distance
1
17% acc · 50%
4
100% acc · 50%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Robbie Lawler rounds
0
even
0
Niko Price rounds
Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 10
Sig Strikes
2 / 7
80%
Sig Str %
28%
8 / 10
Total Strikes
2 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Niko Price2 / 72 / 70 / 00
1Robbie Lawler8 / 108 / 100 / 00

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19