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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · SUB R3

Elo1499

Elo1505

Robbie LawlervsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

SUB · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1499

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricNeil Magny

3.85

Strikes / min

3.40

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.17

65%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.3|Blue +6.3

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

59% acc · 58%

80% acc · 15%

Body

95% acc · 34%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 58%

Distance

62% acc · 63%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

89% acc · 26%

83% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:35

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:58

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

62 / 88

65.7%

Sig Str %

79.3%

41 / 62

Total Strikes

116 / 144

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 7

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

8:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Neil Magny	11 / 11	40 / 42	2 / 3
1	Robbie Lawler	8 / 8	12 / 12	0 / 1
2	Neil Magny	16 / 21	32 / 37	1 / 1
2	Robbie Lawler	7 / 14	9 / 16	0 / 0
3	Neil Magny	35 / 56	44 / 65	1 / 3
3	Robbie Lawler	11 / 23	20 / 34	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37