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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · U-DEC R5

Elo1499

Robbie LawlervsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1499

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricMatt Brown

3.85

Strikes / min

3.76

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

59%

Strike defense

55%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.68

65%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

35% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 55%

87% acc · 16%

Body

68% acc · 32%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 85%

Distance

30% acc · 84%

70% acc · 9%

Clinch

93% acc · 16%

63% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:16

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 4Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:20

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 200

Sig Strikes

82 / 242

40.2%

Sig Str %

32%

87 / 207

Total Strikes

89 / 250

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

100%

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

3:57

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Brown	20 / 50	24 / 54	1 / 2
1	Robbie Lawler	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Matt Brown	15 / 53	15 / 54	1 / 1
2	Robbie Lawler	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
3	Matt Brown	11 / 47	11 / 47	0 / 3
3	Robbie Lawler	17 / 34	21 / 38	0 / 0
4	Robbie Lawler	9 / 23	12 / 26	2 / 2
4	Matt Brown	6 / 24	8 / 26	0 / 1
5	Matt Brown	30 / 68	31 / 69	0 / 1
5	Robbie Lawler	25 / 69	25 / 69	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25