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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1499

Elo1367

Robbie LawlervsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:06

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Jake Ellenberger

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1499

Elo

1367

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricJake Ellenberger

3.85

Strikes / min

2.47

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

59%

Strike defense

60%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.04

65%

Takedown defense

86%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.9|Blue -131.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

40% acc · 84%

Head

27% acc · 76%

79% acc · 16%

Body

83% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

39% acc · 69%

Distance

25% acc · 66%

64% acc · 13%

Clinch

89% acc · 28%

63% acc · 18%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Jake Ellenberger rounds

Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control1:03

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 155

Sig Strikes

29 / 89

43.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

72 / 159

Total Strikes

30 / 90

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Ellenberger	10 / 34	10 / 34	0 / 0
1	Robbie Lawler	14 / 44	14 / 44	0 / 0
2	Jake Ellenberger	13 / 31	14 / 32	2 / 3
2	Robbie Lawler	31 / 70	35 / 74	0 / 1
3	Jake Ellenberger	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 0
3	Robbie Lawler	23 / 41	23 / 41	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19