← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1429

Robbie LawlervsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2017Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1499

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricDonald Cerrone

3.85

Strikes / min

4.41

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

59%

Strike defense

53%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.16

65%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.4|Blue -70.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

41% acc · 61%

Head

39% acc · 61%

76% acc · 36%

Body

81% acc · 32%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

86% acc · 7%

By position

35% acc · 45%

Distance

45% acc · 68%

76% acc · 55%

Clinch

63% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:21

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 156

Sig Strikes

82 / 166

47.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

85 / 164

Total Strikes

99 / 185

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 10

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	15 / 25	28 / 38	1 / 3
1	Robbie Lawler	37 / 57	42 / 62	0 / 1
2	Donald Cerrone	29 / 69	31 / 73	0 / 2
2	Robbie Lawler	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	38 / 72	40 / 74	0 / 5
3	Robbie Lawler	31 / 76	34 / 79	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37