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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Robbie Lawler won · S-DEC R5
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler
Elo1494
Carlos Condit

Robbie LawlervsCarlos ConditUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robbie Lawler has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1499
Elo
1494
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest
Carlos Condit
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20
W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21
L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricCarlos Condit
3.85
Strikes / min
3.66
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
0.59
65%
Takedown defense
38%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1620 vs 1551Strikes48.4 vs 53.2Takedowns1.1 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.82Form0.8 vs 0.4
Robbie LawlerCarlos Condit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.5|Blue -5.5
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetCarlos Condit

By target zone

82
49% acc · 89%
Head
96
26% acc · 55%
7
100% acc · 8%
Body
47
59% acc · 27%
3
100% acc · 3%
Leg
33
75% acc · 19%

By position

76
50% acc · 83%
Distance
149
33% acc · 85%
14
70% acc · 15%
Clinch
27
56% acc · 15%
2
50% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Robbie Lawler rounds
0
even
4
Carlos Condit rounds
Round 1Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 2Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:36
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:05
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 4Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes53
Takedowns0
Control0:00
62Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
92 / 177
Sig Strikes
176 / 495
48.2%
Sig Str %
34%
93 / 178
Total Strikes
177 / 497
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:41
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Condit28 / 7528 / 750 / 00
1Robbie Lawler12 / 1812 / 180 / 00
2Carlos Condit17 / 7118 / 730 / 00
2Robbie Lawler10 / 2311 / 240 / 00
3Carlos Condit22 / 7822 / 780 / 00
3Robbie Lawler11 / 2611 / 260 / 00
4Robbie Lawler6 / 186 / 180 / 00
4Carlos Condit47 / 9847 / 980 / 00
5Carlos Condit62 / 17362 / 1730 / 00
5Robbie Lawler53 / 9253 / 920 / 00

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17