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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1491

Robbie LawlervsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:47

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Robbie Lawler has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Robbie Lawler has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie LawlerW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Brown · Mar 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricBryan Barberena

3.85

Strikes / min

5.35

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

59%

Strike defense

44%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.13

65%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.6|Blue -7.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

52% acc · 80%

Head

116

41% acc · 79%

94% acc · 19%

Body

90% acc · 12%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

81% acc · 9%

By position

57% acc · 96%

Distance

138

45% acc · 94%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

67Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

80Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 141

Sig Strikes

147 / 316

57.5%

Sig Str %

47%

81 / 141

Total Strikes

148 / 317

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Barberena	67 / 171	68 / 172	0 / 0
1	Robbie Lawler	39 / 65	39 / 65	0 / 0
2	Bryan Barberena	80 / 145	80 / 145	0 / 0
2	Robbie Lawler	42 / 76	42 / 76	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19