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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1353

Robbie LawlervsBobby VoelkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:24

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsBobby Voelker: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bobby Voelker wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Voelker at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bobby Voelker enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Robbie Lawler has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler

Red Corner

Bobby Voelker

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1499

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Bobby VoelkerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Mar 13

DECvs William Patolino · Dec 13

vs Lance Benoist · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricBobby Voelker

3.85

Strikes / min

4.01

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.84

59%

Strike defense

42%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.04

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Robbie LawlerBobby Voelker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Bobby Voelker(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +145.8|Blue -145.8

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetBobby Voelker

By target zone

56% acc · 79%

Head

17% acc · 60%

83% acc · 18%

Body

67% acc · 20%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

57% acc · 75%

Distance

23% acc · 90%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Robbie Lawler rounds

even

Bobby Voelker rounds

Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:11

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 46

Sig Strikes

10 / 42

60%

Sig Str %

28%

32 / 51

Total Strikes

11 / 44

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bobby Voelker	9 / 39	10 / 41	0 / 0
1	Robbie Lawler	25 / 41	29 / 46	1 / 1
2	Bobby Voelker	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0
2	Robbie Lawler	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Bobby Voelker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4