Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ben Askren won · SUB R1
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler
Elo1377

Robbie LawlervsBen AskrenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Saturday, March 2, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ben Askren won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:20

Style matchupRobbie Lawler: Well-roundedvsBen Askren: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(78.3%)

Actual result: Ben Askren wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Ben Askren has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Robbie Lawler has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Robbie Lawler has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robbie Lawler
Red Corner
VS
Ben Askren
Blue Corner
+240
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-280
(74%)
1499
Elo
1377
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest
Ben AskrenL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 19
L
SUBvs Demian Maia · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robbie LawlerMetricBen Askren
3.85
Strikes / min
3.64
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.66
59%
Strike defense
36%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
4.33
65%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1617 vs 1500Strikes51.8 vs —Takedowns0.8 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Robbie LawlerBen Askren

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Ben Askren(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +121.8|Blue -121.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robbie LawlerTargetBen Askren

By target zone

21
88% acc · 81%
Head
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 19%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
50% acc · 4%
Distance
0
0% acc
9
100% acc · 35%
Clinch
0
16
89% acc · 62%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Robbie Lawler rounds
0
even
0
Ben Askren rounds
Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:33
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:59Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
26 / 29
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
89%
Sig Str %
0%
30 / 33
Total Strikes
3 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 2
100%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:33
Ctrl Time
1:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ben Askren0 / 13 / 51 / 21
1Robbie Lawler26 / 2930 / 331 / 10

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Ben Askren

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3