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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Israel Adesanya won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1364

Elo1464

Rob WilkinsonvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:37

Style matchupRob Wilkinson: WrestlervsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Rob Wilkinson wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rob Wilkinson at +305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Israel Adesanya has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Israel Adesanya has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Rob Wilkinson

Red Corner

Israel Adesanya

Blue Corner

+305

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-365

(78%)

1364

Elo

1464

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob Wilkinson

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 17

latest

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob WilkinsonMetricIsrael Adesanya

2.74

Strikes / min

4.03

5.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

39%

Strike defense

55%

4.47

TDs / 15 min

0.05

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.92Δ 3.73 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob WilkinsonIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Wilkinson(2 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.6|Blue +100.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob WilkinsonTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

27% acc · 27%

Head

63% acc · 67%

50% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 25%

79% acc · 50%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 32%

Distance

62% acc · 54%

75% acc · 68%

Clinch

80% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Wilkinson rounds

even

Israel Adesanya rounds

Round 1Rob Wilkinson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:22

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:45

Knockdowns0

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 46

Sig Strikes

52 / 75

44%

Sig Str %

66.5%

33 / 59

Total Strikes

70 / 94

3 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

20%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Israel Adesanya	10 / 16	24 / 31	0 / 0
1	Rob Wilkinson	17 / 27	26 / 37	2 / 10
2	Israel Adesanya	42 / 59	46 / 63	0 / 0
2	Rob Wilkinson	5 / 19	7 / 22	1 / 5

Rob Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights2

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19