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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R5

Elo1490

Elo1493

Rob FontvsJose AldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRob Font: Pressure fightervsJose Aldo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Rob Font wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rob Font at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rob Font

Red Corner

Jose Aldo

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1490

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 25

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob FontMetricJose Aldo

5.11

Strikes / min

3.65

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

57%

Strike defense

60%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.47

37%

Takedown defense

92%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.58Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob FontJose Aldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Font(10 fights)Jose Aldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob FontTargetJose Aldo

By target zone

39% acc · 63%

Head

44% acc · 66%

79% acc · 26%

Body

95% acc · 22%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

83% acc · 12%

By position

135

47% acc · 91%

Distance

51% acc · 87%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

75% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Font rounds

even

Jose Aldo rounds

Round 1Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:50

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 4Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:35Control

1Knockdowns

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:18

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

149 / 305

Sig Strikes

86 / 161

48.4%

Sig Str %

57%

193 / 350

Total Strikes

96 / 172

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

9:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Aldo	26 / 41	27 / 42	0 / 1	0
1	Rob Font	36 / 90	37 / 91	1 / 3	0
2	Jose Aldo	23 / 51	23 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Rob Font	48 / 89	48 / 89	0 / 1	0
3	Jose Aldo	12 / 29	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Rob Font	37 / 64	46 / 73	0 / 1	0
4	Rob Font	10 / 20	27 / 37	0 / 0	0
4	Jose Aldo	10 / 12	15 / 18	0 / 0	0
5	Jose Aldo	15 / 28	17 / 30	0 / 0	1
5	Rob Font	18 / 42	35 / 60	0 / 0	0

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23