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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Rob Font won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1518

Rob FontvsJean MatsumotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Rob Font won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRob Font: Pressure fightervsJean Matsumoto: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jean Matsumoto wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Rob Font wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Matsumoto at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rob Font has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jean Matsumoto has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rob Font

Red Corner

Jean Matsumoto

Blue Corner

+168

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1490

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 23

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Jean Matsumoto

oldest →

SUBvs Dan Argueta · Apr 24

vs Brad Katona · Oct 24

vs Miles Johns · Aug 25

vs Farid Basharat · Feb 26

DECvs Bekzat Almakhan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob FontMetricJean Matsumoto

5.11

Strikes / min

5.37

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.41

57%

Strike defense

47%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

3.00

37%

Takedown defense

56%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.58Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob FontJean Matsumoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Font(10 fights)Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.9|Blue +27.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob FontTargetJean Matsumoto

By target zone

52% acc · 86%

Head

32% acc · 56%

93% acc · 14%

Body

69% acc · 12%

Leg

76% acc · 32%

By position

54% acc · 89%

Distance

41% acc · 90%

71% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Font rounds

even

Jean Matsumoto rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:26

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:52

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 171

Sig Strikes

77 / 181

56.7%

Sig Str %

41%

113 / 191

Total Strikes

113 / 225

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 10

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

6:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jean Matsumoto	7 / 19	32 / 49	2 / 3	0
1	Rob Font	21 / 34	27 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Jean Matsumoto	29 / 61	35 / 69	5 / 5	0
2	Rob Font	34 / 56	36 / 58	0 / 0	1
3	Jean Matsumoto	41 / 101	46 / 107	0 / 2	0
3	Rob Font	40 / 81	50 / 92	0 / 0	0

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6