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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Rob Font won · U-DEC

Elo1490

Elo1487

Rob FontvsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rob Font won

U-DEC

Style matchupRob Font: Pressure fightervsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rob Font wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Rob Font wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rob Font at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rob Font is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cody Garbrandt has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Cody Garbrandt has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rob Font has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rob Font

Red Corner

Cody Garbrandt

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1490

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 25

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob FontMetricCody Garbrandt

5.11

Strikes / min

2.79

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

57%

Strike defense

58%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.85

37%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.58Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob FontCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Font(10 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob FontTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

145

44% acc · 82%

Head

38% acc · 71%

79% acc · 13%

Body

73% acc · 13%

80% acc · 5%

Leg

91% acc · 16%

By position

168

47% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 81%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

73% acc · 13%

67% acc · 1%

Ground

80% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Font rounds

even

Cody Garbrandt rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control1:12

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 4Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control0:01

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

176 / 365

Sig Strikes

63 / 142

47.8%

Sig Str %

44.4%

183 / 374

Total Strikes

78 / 159

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 10

75%

TD %

24.8%

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cody Garbrandt	13 / 27	13 / 28	2 / 3
1	Rob Font	21 / 44	23 / 46	0 / 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	8 / 21	12 / 25	1 / 3
2	Rob Font	27 / 55	29 / 57	0 / 0
3	Cody Garbrandt	15 / 29	18 / 33	0 / 2
3	Rob Font	32 / 68	35 / 73	1 / 1
4	Rob Font	51 / 101	51 / 101	0 / 0
4	Cody Garbrandt	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 2
5	Cody Garbrandt	15 / 40	23 / 48	0 / 0
5	Rob Font	45 / 97	45 / 97	1 / 2

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18