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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1395

Rob EmersonvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRob Emerson: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rob Emerson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rob Emerson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rob Emerson

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob EmersonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob EmersonMetricNik Lentz

2.50

Strikes / min

3.44

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

64%

Strike defense

50%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

3.30

65%

Takedown defense

43%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob EmersonNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Emerson(1 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.2|Blue -95.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob EmersonTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

36% acc · 57%

100% acc · 8%

Body

84% acc · 35%

86% acc · 25%

Leg

80% acc · 9%

By position

22% acc · 46%

Distance

29% acc · 26%

52% acc · 46%

Clinch

63% acc · 26%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

63% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Emerson rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:18Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 74

Sig Strikes

46 / 96

29.3%

Sig Str %

47%

45 / 96

Total Strikes

79 / 133

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 14

TD %

34.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

8:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	15 / 33	22 / 40	1 / 7	1
1	Rob Emerson	12 / 41	16 / 45	0 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	11 / 24	21 / 35	2 / 5	0
2	Rob Emerson	11 / 28	24 / 41	0 / 0	1
3	Nik Lentz	20 / 39	36 / 58	1 / 2	0
3	Rob Emerson	1 / 5	5 / 10	0 / 0	0

Rob Emerson

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22