← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Philip De Fries won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1352

Rob BroughtonvsPhilip De FriesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Philip De Fries won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rob Broughton wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Philip De Fries wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rob Broughton at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rob Broughton has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Philip De Fries has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Philip De Fries has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rob Broughton

Red Corner

Philip De Fries

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1351

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rob Broughton

oldest →

SUBvs Vinicius Queiroz · Oct 10

vs Travis Browne · Sep 11

latest

Philip De FriesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Feb 12

SUBvs Oli Thompson · Aug 12

KOvs Todd Duffee · Dec 12

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rob BroughtonMetricPhilip De Fries

2.83

Strikes / min

2.30

2.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

51%

Strike defense

37%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.29

26%

Takedown defense

100%

3.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rob BroughtonPhilip De Fries

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rob Broughton(3 fights)Philip De Fries(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rob BroughtonTargetPhilip De Fries

By target zone

58% acc · 52%

Head

59% acc · 93%

100% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 14%

Distance

60% acc · 43%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

95% acc · 72%

Ground

62% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rob Broughton rounds

even

Philip De Fries rounds

Round 1Philip De Fries edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:24Control

Round 2Rob Broughton edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:41

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 3Philip De Fries edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 40

Sig Strikes

14 / 23

65%

Sig Str %

71.3%

102 / 120

Total Strikes

41 / 52

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

10:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Philip De Fries	6 / 11	12 / 18	1 / 2	0
1	Rob Broughton	4 / 10	23 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Philip De Fries	2 / 2	9 / 9	1 / 2	0
2	Rob Broughton	19 / 20	57 / 62	0 / 0	2
3	Philip De Fries	6 / 10	20 / 25	1 / 1	0
3	Rob Broughton	6 / 10	22 / 26	0 / 0	0

Rob Broughton

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Philip De Fries

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5