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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Roan Carneiro won · S-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1358
Kenny Robertson

Roan CarneirovsKenny RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Roan Carneiro won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoan Carneiro: WrestlervsKenny Robertson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Roan Carneiro wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Roan Carneiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roan Carneiro at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roan Carneiro has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Roan Carneiro has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roan Carneiro
Red Corner
VS
Kenny Robertson
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1491
Elo
1358
48
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roan CarneiroL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17
latest
Kenny Robertson
oldest →
L
vs Sean Pierson · Jun 13
W
SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14
W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14
W
KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15
L
vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roan CarneiroMetricKenny Robertson
1.46
Strikes / min
3.72
1.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
62%
Strike defense
52%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
1.37
83%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1508Strikes11.6 vs 37.4Takedowns2.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.29 vs 0.63Form-0.4 vs 0.1
Roan CarneiroKenny Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Roan Carneiro(4 fights)Kenny Robertson(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +132.7|Blue -132.7
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -211.0|Blue +211.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roan CarneiroTargetKenny Robertson

By target zone

24
41% acc · 73%
Head
11
10% acc · 39%
7
78% acc · 21%
Body
6
67% acc · 21%
2
100% acc · 6%
Leg
11
73% acc · 39%

By position

28
43% acc · 85%
Distance
21
17% acc · 75%
5
100% acc · 15%
Clinch
4
100% acc · 14%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Roan Carneiro rounds
1
even
0
Kenny Robertson rounds
Round 1Roan Carneiro edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:51
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control1:38
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:31Control
Round 3Roan Carneiro edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:08
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 70
Sig Strikes
28 / 134
44.3%
Sig Str %
20%
43 / 80
Total Strikes
45 / 153
2 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
2
2:37
Ctrl Time
3:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kenny Robertson15 / 5916 / 600 / 00
1Roan Carneiro14 / 2414 / 241 / 20
2Kenny Robertson4 / 2119 / 380 / 00
2Roan Carneiro2 / 612 / 161 / 10
3Kenny Robertson9 / 5410 / 550 / 00
3Roan Carneiro17 / 4017 / 400 / 30

Roan Carneiro

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9