Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rinya Nakamura won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1519

Elo1483

Rinya NakamuravsNathan FletcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rinya Nakamura won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:02

Style matchupRinya Nakamura: WrestlervsNathan Fletcher: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinya Nakamura at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinya Nakamura is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nathan Fletcher has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rinya Nakamura

Red Corner

Nathan Fletcher

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1519

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinya Nakamura

oldest →

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23

vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23

vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24

vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25

latest

Nathan Fletcher

oldest →

SUBvs Zygimantas Ramaska · Sep 24

vs Caolan Loughran · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinya NakamuraMetricNathan Fletcher

3.27

Strikes / min

3.41

1.72

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

63%

Strike defense

57%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

3.37

100%

Takedown defense

50%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.55evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rinya NakamuraNathan Fletcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.5|Blue -35.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinya NakamuraTargetNathan Fletcher

By target zone

46% acc · 50%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

40% acc · 67%

By position

53% acc · 67%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rinya Nakamura rounds

even

Nathan Fletcher rounds

Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 19

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

63%

Sig Str %

42%

12 / 19

Total Strikes

3 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nathan Fletcher	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Rinya Nakamura	12 / 19	12 / 19	0 / 0	0

Rinya Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Nathan Fletcher

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3