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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Muin Gafurov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1519

Elo1489

Rinya NakamuravsMuin GafurovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Muin Gafurov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRinya Nakamura: WrestlervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Muin Gafurov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinya Nakamura at -750 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinya Nakamura enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Rinya Nakamura has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rinya Nakamura

Red Corner

Muin Gafurov

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+530

(16%)

1519

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinya NakamuraW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23

vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23

vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24

KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25

latest

Muin Gafurov

oldest →

vs John Castaneda · Jun 23

SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24

SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinya NakamuraMetricMuin Gafurov

3.27

Strikes / min

3.36

1.72

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

63%

Strike defense

55%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.57

100%

Takedown defense

70%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.55evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rinya NakamuraMuin Gafurov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.4|Blue -30.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinya NakamuraTargetMuin Gafurov

By target zone

23% acc · 32%

Head

31% acc · 54%

89% acc · 26%

Body

75% acc · 24%

65% acc · 42%

Leg

62% acc · 22%

By position

40% acc · 90%

Distance

42% acc · 86%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

57% acc · 11%

Ground

14% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rinya Nakamura rounds

even

Muin Gafurov rounds

Round 1Muin Gafurov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Muin Gafurov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:41

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 73

Sig Strikes

37 / 90

42%

Sig Str %

40.3%

39 / 82

Total Strikes

73 / 130

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

2:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Muin Gafurov	12 / 29	42 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Rinya Nakamura	10 / 24	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Muin Gafurov	14 / 32	17 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Rinya Nakamura	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 1	0
3	Muin Gafurov	11 / 29	14 / 32	0 / 1	0
3	Rinya Nakamura	12 / 25	16 / 29	0 / 0	1

Rinya Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Muin Gafurov

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5